Interest Rate Probability Distributions Implied by Derivatives Prices is a daily measure of the distribution of future short-term interest rates, calculated from prices of fixed-income derivatives ...

If when you attempt to upgrade your edition of Windows from Home to Pro but encounter the activation error 0x803fa067, then this post is intended to help you. In this ...

Life is uncertain. None of us know what is going to happen. We know little of what has happened in the past or is happening now outside our immediate experience. Uncertainty has been called the ...

Most [[p-value|p-values]] hold only at fixed times. That is, a p-value $P_n$ based on $n$ observations has the guarantee $$ \text{for all data-independent times }n ...

How well can experiments be used to predict the future? At Microsoft’s Experimentation Platform (ExP), we pride ourselves on ensuring the trustworthiness of our experiments. We carefully check to make ...

Future events are far from certain in the business world. This is especially true for smaller businesses, which tend to have more volatility than larger organizations, or newer businesses without a ...

The mathematician Daniel Litt has driven social media users to distraction with a series of simple-seeming but counterintuitive probability puzzles. In late January, Daniel Litt posed an innocent ...

Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the critical role of simulation input modeling in a successful simulation study. Two pitfalls in simulation input modeling are then presented and we explain how any ...